An Analysis of the Long-Term Care Policy Mandates Implemented in Canada during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic had a catastrophic impact on Canada's long-term care system. This report compares the experiences of the five Canadian provinces that were most affected by COVID-19. This includes a comparison of the five mandates that provincial governments implemented in order to protect long-term care residents. Findings from this report indicate that the Canadian provinces whose long-term care systems were most devastated by COVID-19 failed their residents by responding too slowly compared with provinces with similar long-term care systems. This lesson should guide policy reform to safeguard residents during the second wave and beyond.

Association of the Timing of School Closings and Behavioral Changes With the Evolution of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in the US.

Importance: The consequences of school closures for children's health are profound, but existing evidence on their effectiveness in limiting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission is unsettled. Objective: To determine the independent associations of voluntary behavioral change, school closures, and bans on large gatherings with the incidence and mortality due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based, interrupted-time-series analysis of lagged independent variables used publicly available observational data from US states during a 60-day period from March 8 to May 18, 2020. The behavioral measures were collected from anonymized cell phone or internet data for individuals in the US and compared with a baseline of January 3 to February 6, 2020. Estimates were also controlled for several state-level characteristics. Exposures: Days since school closure, days since a ban on gatherings of 10 or more people, and days since residents voluntarily conducted a 15% or more decline in time spent at work via Google Mobility data. Main Outcomes and Measures: The natural log of 7-day mean COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Results: During the study period, the rate of restaurant dining declined from 1 year earlier by a mean (SD) of 98.3% (5.2%) during the study period. Time at work declined by a mean (SD) of 40.0% (7.9%); time at home increased by a mean (SD) of 15.4% (3.7%). In fully adjusted models, an advance of 1 day in implementing mandatory school closures was associated with a 3.5% reduction (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.965; 95% CI, 0.946-0.984) in incidence, whereas each day earlier that behavioral change occurred was associated with a 9.3% reduction (IRR, 0.907; 95% CI, 0.890-0.925) in incidence. For mortality, each day earlier that school closures occurred was associated with a subsequent 3.8% reduction (IRR, 0.962; 95% CI, 0.926-0.998), and each day of advance in behavioral change was associated with a 9.8% reduction (IRR, 0.902; 95% CI, 0.869-0.936). Simulations suggest that a 2-week delay in school closures alone would have been associated with an additional 23 000 (95% CI, 2000-62 000) deaths, whereas a 2-week delay in voluntary behavioral change with school closures remaining the same would have been associated with an additional 140 000 (95% CI, 65 000-294 000) deaths. Conclusions and Relevance: In light of the harm to children of closing schools, these findings suggest that policy makers should consider better leveraging the public's willingness to protect itself through voluntary behavioral change.

Associations of Government-Mandated Closures and Restrictions With Aggregate Mobility Trends and SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Nigeria.

Importance: To prepare for future coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) waves, Nigerian policy makers need insights into community spread of COVID-19 and changes in rates of infection associated with government-mandated closures and restrictions. Objectives: To measure the association of closures and restrictions with aggregate mobility and the association of mobility with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and to characterize community spread of COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used aggregated anonymized mobility data from smartphone users in Nigeria who opted to provide location history (from a pool of up to 40 million individuals) collected between February 27 and July 21, 2020. The analyzed data included daily counts of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and daily changes in aggregate mobility across 6 categories: retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residential. Closures and restrictions were initiated on March 30, 2020, and partially eased on May 4, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Interrupted time series were used to measure associations of closures and restrictions with aggregate mobility. Negative binomial regression was used to evaluate associations between confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and mobility categories. Averted infections were estimated by subtracting cumulative confirmed infections from estimated infections assuming no closures and restrictions. Results: Closures and restrictions had negative associations with mean change in daily aggregate mobility in retail and recreation (-46.87 [95% CI, -55.98 to -37.76] percentage points; P < .001), grocery and pharmacy (-28.95 [95% CI, -40.12 to -17.77] percentage points; P < .001), parks (-43.59 [95% CI, -49.89 to -37.30] percentage points; P < .001), transit stations (-47.44 [95% CI, -56.70 to -38.19] percentage points; P < .001), and workplaces (-53.07 [95% CI, -67.75 to -38.39] percentage points; P < .001) and a positive association with mobility in residential areas (24.10 [95% CI, 19.14 to 29.05] percentage points; P < .001). Most of these changes reversed after closures and restrictions were partially eased (retail and recreation: 14.63 [95% CI, 10.95 to 18.30] percentage points; P < .001; grocery and pharmacy: 15.29 [95% CI, 10.90 to 19.67] percentage points; P < .001; parks: 6.48 [95% CI, 3.98 to 8.99] percentage points; P < .001; transit stations: 17.93 [95% CI, 14.03 to 21.83] percentage points; P < .001; residential: -5.59 [95% CI, -9.08 to -2.09] percentage points; P = .002). Additionally, every percentage point increase in aggregate mobility was associated with higher incidences of SARS-CoV-2 infection in residential areas (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.03 [95% CI, 1.00 to 1.07]; P = .04), transit stations (IRR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.00 to 1.03]; P = .008), and workplaces (IRR, 1.01 [95% CI, 1.00 to 1.02]; P = .04). Lastly, closures and restrictions may have been associated with averting up to 5.8 million SARS-CoV-2 infections over the study period. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, closures and restrictions had significant associations with aggregate mobility and were associated with decreased SARS-CoV-2 infections. These findings suggest that future anticontagion measures need better infection control and contact tracing in residential areas, transit stations, and workplaces.